A model for availability growth with application to new generation offshore wind farms

摘要: Abstract A model for availability growth is developed to capture the effect of systemic risk prior construction a complex system. The has been motivated by new generation offshore wind farms where investment decisions need be taken before test and operational data are available. We develop generic risks arising from innovation in evolutionary system designs. By modelling impact major minor interventions mitigate weaknesses improve failure restoration processes subassemblies, we able measure performance describe choices made our particular industrial setting using an example typical UK Round III farm. obtain point estimates expected having populated simulated appropriate judgemental empirical data. show relative on comparison with obtained assumptions used applications. While necessary meaningful decision support developing systems such as farms, also discuss value explicitly articulating epistemic uncertainties.