作者: Nicola Scafetta , Shenghui Ouyang
DOI: 10.1016/J.GLOPLACHA.2019.102989
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摘要: Abstract Near-surface temperature records show that China warmed by about 0.8 °C from 1950 to 2010. However, there exists an ongoing debate whether this warming might have been partially due urbanization bias. In fact, homogenization approaches may be inefficient in densely populated provinces experienced a significant urban development since the 1940s. This paper aims complement previous research on topic showing alternative approach based analysis of divergence between minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) near-surface 1940s could useful clarify issue because heat island (UHI) effects stress nocturnal temperatures more than diurnal ones. Then, significance observed data evaluated against expectations produced CMIP5 general circulation model simulations. From 1945–1954 2005–2014, average over China, these models predict Tmin had warm 0.19 ± 0.06 °C Tmax. during same period, climatic 0.83 ± 0.15 °C A similar demonstrates effect is pronounced colder months November–April warmer ones May October. comparison versus regions characterized large Tmin-Tmax are also most ones, such as north-east diffused fast The results indicate presence substantial uncorrected bias Chinese climate records. Under hypothesis Tmax better metric for studying changes Tmean or Tmin, we conclude 50% recorded addition, find record October shows 2000s equally warm, contrast 1 °C predicted models.