Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited

摘要: This article assesses emissions scenarios in the literature, originally documented scenario database that was developed more than 7 years ago. The original assessment and literature review has been used, among other things, as basis for quantification of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) reference IPCC Third Assessment (TAR) stabilization scenarios. In meantime, a large number new have published. We collected relevant information about these with objective to assess recent perspectives future global changes their driving forces may occurred since publication SRES TAR Our analysis goes beyond mere comparisons ranges. particular, we explore underlying drivers using so-called IPAT identity (Impacts are proportional product Population, Affluence, Technology). When refers carbon it is called Kaya identity, where dioxide (CO2) assumed correspond population, per capita income, energy intensity gross domestic (GDP), CO2 energy. Comparing before shows there strong similarities main tendencies many scenario’s results.