The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

摘要: Using large-scale circulation statistics from the Pacific Ocean basin, predictability of coupled ocean-atmosphere system on interannual time scales is found both to be limited in extent and possess a strong annual cycle. Irrespective when lagged correlations are commenced, decrease rapidly through boreal spring, indicating an inherent limitation for large scale oceanicatmospheric processes such as El Nino. Long term prediction experiments using numerical coupled-models show that models excellent facsimiles real system. They, too, encounter barrier exhibit substantial observation-prediction correlation across spring. Thus, predictive based solely interactive physics Basin appears maximum less than one year minimum only or two months.