Seasonal and annual fluctuations of deer populations estimated by a Bayesian state–space model

摘要: Abstract Deer overabundance is a contributing factor in the degradation of plant communities and ecosystems worldwide. The management conservation deer-affected requires us to urgently grasp deer population trends identify factors that affect them. In this study, we developed Bayesian state–space model estimate dynamics sika (Cervus nippon) cool-temperate forest Japan, where wolves (Canis lupus hodophilax) are extinct. was based on field data collected from block count surveys, road surveys by vehicles, mortality during winter, nuisance control for 12 years (2007–2018). We clarified seasonal annual fluctuation population. found two peaks abundance (2007 2010) over years. 2011 estimated decreased drastically has remained at low level then. increased spring autumn winter most detected could reflect migration pattern recruitment through fawn births early summer. our model, snowfall accumulation, which can be lethal deer, may have slightly affected their winter. Although not detect direct effect snow dynamics, decrease due global warming decelerate deer; subsequently, staying on-site intensively forage evergreen perennial plants season. dynamics. Even wildlife protection areas national parks hunting regulated, effective buffering browsing ecosystems.