A model–data comparison for a multi-model ensemble of early Eocene atmosphere–ocean simulations: EoMIP

摘要: Abstract. The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been explored in large number of modelling and data studies. Here, using an ensemble previously published model results, making up "EoMIP" – the Modelling Intercomparison Project syntheses terrestrial sea surface temperature data, we present self-consistent inter-model model–data comparison. This shows that previous studies exhibit very wide variability, but at high CO2, there good agreement between models for this period, particularly if possible seasonal biases some proxies are considered. An energy balance analysis explores reasons differences suggests albedo feedbacks, water vapour lapse rate prescribed aerosol loading dominant cause different results seen models, rather than inconsistencies other boundary conditions or cloud feedbacks. CO2 level would give optimal agreement, based on those have carried out simulations with more one level, range 2500 ppmv 6500 ppmv. Given spread tighter bounds proxy estimates atmospheric during will allow quantitative assessment skill simulating warm climates. If it case gives simulation also future, then such could be used produce metrics weighting future climate predictions.