Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

摘要: Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating protocols reduces improves decisions. One most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if population species occurs an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, falsely declaring absent can cause improper conservation or even extirpation populations. We propose method design survey for imperfectly accounts sources detection process, capable quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into allows updates protocol, permits managers weigh severity consequences declared absent. developed our using giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), threatened precinctive Central Valley California, as case study. Survey date was negatively related probability detecting gartersnake, water temperature positively sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing duration surveys, temperatures would allow evaluate sites where it not detected. This also quantitative evaluation changes protocol. Because naturally predicated upon idea information, Bayesian analysis well-suited solving problem developing efficient concern.