Reasons for Larger Warming Projections in the IPCC Third Assessment Report
作者： T. M. L. Wigley , S. C. B. Raper
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2945:RFLWPI>2.0.CO;2
关键词:
摘要: Abstract Projections of future warming in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR) are substantially larger than those Second (SAR). The reasons for these differences documented and quantified. Differences divided into emissions scenarios science (gas cycle, forcing, climate models). main source emissions-related is aerosol primarily due to large SO2 between SAR TAR scenarios. For any given scenario, concentration projections based similar, except methane at high levels where leads lower concentrations. new slightly total forcing warming. At low end range effects roughly equal. end, ha...
harvard.edu
sci-hub.se 参考文章(20)
S. C. B. Raper, T. M. L. Wigley, R. A. Warrick, Global Sea-level Rise: Past and Future Coastal Systems and Continental Margins. pp. 11- 45 ,(1996) , 10.1007/978-94-015-8719-8_2
Joseph Alcamo, Eric Kreileman, Rik Leemans, Global change scenarios of the 21st Century : results from the IMAGE 2.1 model Pergamon. ,(1998)
S. Raper, M. Hoffert, Jonathan M. Gregory, A. Jain, D. Harvey, T. Wigley, M. Lal, R. Leemans, J. de Wolde, An introduction to simple climate models used in the IPCC second assessment report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. ,(1997)
Arnulf Grübler, A Review of Global and Regional Sulfur Emission Scenarios Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. ,vol. 3, pp. 383- 418 ,(1998) , 10.1023/A:1009651624257
M Van Weele, R Von Kuhlmann, D Ehhalt, M Prather, F Dentener, R Derwent, E Dlugokencky, E Holland, I Isaksen, J Katima, V Kirchhoff, P Matson, P Midgley, M Wang, T Berntsen, I Bey, G Brasseur, L Buja, WJ Collins, J Daniel, WB Demore, N Derek, R Dickerson, D Etheridge, J Feichter, P Fraser, R Friedl, J Fuglestvedt, M Gauss, L Grenfell, A Grübler, N Harris, D Hauglustaine, L Horowitz, C Jackman, D Jacob, L Jaeglé, A Jain, M Kanakidou, S Karlsdottir, M Ko, M Kurylo, M Lawrence, JA Logan, M Manning, D Mauzerall, J Mcconnell, L Mickley, S Montzka, JF Müller, J Olivier, K Pickering, G Pitari, GJ Roelofs, H Rogers, B Rognerud, S Smith, S Solomon, J Staehelin, P Steele, D Stevenson, J Sundet, A Thompson, M van Weele, R von Kuhlmann, Y Wang, D Weisenstein, T Wigley, O Wild, D Wuebbles, R Yantosca, F Joos, M Mcfarland, Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases Cambridge University Press. pp. 241- 287 ,(2001)
Emilio L. La Rovere, Hugh Pitcher, Joseph Alcamo, Hans-Holger Rogner, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Keywan Riahi, Sascha van Rooijen, Bert de Vries, William Pepper, Michael Schlesinger, Steven Smith, Tom Kram, Tsuneyuki Morita, Lynn Price, Alexei Sankovski, Gerald Davis, Robert Swart, Priyadarshi Shukla, Laurie Michaelis, Shunsuke Mori, Nadejda Victor, Joergen Fenhann, Amulf Griibler, Kermeth Gregory, Tae Y. Jung, Alexander Roehrl, Zhou Dadi, Stuart Gaffin, Special report on emissions scenarios (2000). pp. 612- ,(2000)
T. M. L. Wigley, Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes Tellus B. ,vol. 45, pp. 409- 425 ,(1993) , 10.3402/TELLUSB.V45I5.15739
Steven J Smith, Hugh Pitcher, T.M.L Wigley, Global and regional anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions grid and pervasive computing. ,vol. 29, pp. 99- 119 ,(2001) , 10.1016/S0921-8181(00)00057-6
S. C. B. Raper, U. Cubasch, Emulation of the results from a coupled general circulation model using a simple climate model Geophysical Research Letters. ,vol. 23, pp. 1107- 1110 ,(1996) , 10.1029/96GL01065
T. J. Osborn, T. M. L. Wigley, A simple model for estimating methane concentration and lifetime variations Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 9, pp. 181- 193 ,(1994) , 10.1007/BF00208251