Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties

摘要: Long-term projections for key drivers needed in urban water infrastructure planning such as climate change, population growth, and socio-economic changes are deeply uncertain. Traditional approaches heavily rely on these projections, which, if a projection stays unfulfilled, can lead to problematic decisions causing high operational costs and/or lock-in effects. New based exploratory modelling take fundamentally different view. Aim of is, identify an adaptation strategy that performs well under many future scenarios, instead optimising handful. However, tool support strategic test the implication strategies uncertain conditions management does not exist yet. This paper presents first step towards new generation tools, by combing innovative which coevolve environment with robust decision making. The developed approach is applied city Innsbruck, Austria, spatially explicitly evolved 20 years into 1000 scenarios robustness strategies. Key findings this show that: (1) Such be used successfully parameter ranges desired performance criterion fulfilled, important indicator strategy; (2) Analysis rich dataset gives insights adaptive responses agents system modifying strategy.