Prioritizing risks and uncertainties from intentional release of selected Category A pathogens.

摘要: This paper synthesizes available information on five Category A pathogens (Bacillus anthracis, Yersinia pestis, Francisella tularensis, Variola major and Lassa) to develop quantitative guidelines for how environmental pathogen concentrations may be related human health risk in an indoor environment. An integrated model of transport exposure biological is constructed which 1) includes the effects attenuation, 2) considers fomite contact as well inhalational exposure, 3) uncertainty analysis identify key input uncertainties, inform future research directions. The findings provide a framework developing many different standards that are needed making risk-informed response decisions, such when prophylactic antibiotics should distributed, whether or not contaminated area cleaned up. approach based assumption uniform mixing compartments thus applicable areas sufficiently removed time space from initial release has produced relatively concentrations. Results indicate released into air, inhalation main component overall risk, while ingestion (dermal B. anthracis) present surfaces. Concentrations sampled untracked floor, walls filter heating ventilation air conditioning (HVAC) system proposed indicators previous samples taken touched surfaces if building reoccupied. Monte Carlo conducted input-output correlations used important parameter uncertainties. integrating these assessments with broader, qualitative considerations priorities.