The thermal response of small and shallow lakes to climate change: new insights from 3D hindcast modelling

摘要: Abstract. Small, shallow lakes represent the majority of inland freshwater bodies. However, effects climate change on such ecosystems have rarely been quantitatively addressed. We propose a methodology to evaluate thermal response small, long-term changes in meteorological conditions through model simulations. To do so, 3D thermal-hydrodynamic is forced with data and used hindcast evolution an urban lake Paris region between 1960 and 2017. Its assessed series indices describing its regime terms water temperature, stratification, potential cyanobacteria production. These forcing are first analysed over time test presence monotonic trends. 3D simulations then exploited highlight spatial heterogeneity. The analyses show that has strongly impacted study site. highly correlated three variables: air solar radiation, wind speed. Mean annual temperature shows considerable warming trend 0.6  ∘ C per decade, accompanied by longer stratification increase energy favourable proliferation. strengthening for particularly strong during spring summer, while increases especially autumn. 3D analysis allows us detect sharp separation between deeper shallower portions basin dynamics This induces dynamic patterns space within site growth bloom initiation.