The impacts of climate change in Europe (the PESETA research project)

摘要: How much will climate change damage the European economy? Which geographical areas would be most affected? sectors are vulnerable? Where and why there gains from change? sectoral policies should changed to consider impacts adaptation? These questions relevant for designing prioritising adaptation strategies, as stressed by Commission White Paper on Adaptation (European 2009). Within that context, main motivation of PESETA research project (Projection Economic in Sectors Union based boTtom-up Analysis) has been contribute a better understanding possible physical economic induced Europe over 21st century, paying particular attention dimensions (Ciscar et al. 2009; Ciscar 2011a). There two approaches literature used estimate change. The first approach implements top-down perspective proposing reducedform functions relate variables measure impact. effect gross domestic product (GDP) is usually function average global temperature, such e.g. Hitz Smith (2004) Stern (2007). Yet, this some drawbacks. Firstly, estimates results literature, derived different, maybe inconsistent, scenarios. Secondly, only temperature precipitation included. Other required time-space resolution data not taken into account. Thirdly, impact lack necessary assessing regional policies. A second strand followed bottom-up approach, where effects estimated running high-resolution impact-specific models, Climatic Change (2012) 112:1–6 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0336-x