Large scale societal transitions in the past

摘要: WP 201 takes a historical perspective in analysing past systemic social-ecological transition processes. The research paper (MS 27) emerging from task 201.2 explores two major energy transitions of the past: to use fossil fuels (e.g. starting with coal UK 17th century, and continuing rest world oil since). How was this linked institutional transformations, frequently paved by revolutions? We statistically demonstrate how similar processes occurred many countries, accellerated over time. In contrast more common approaches, we do not focus on introduction particular technologies, but gradual substitution biomass as key source fuels, also increase amount economically available energy. Beyond indicator TPES (total primary supply) expand our database that countains DEC (domestic consumption). encompasses, beyond TPES, converted human animal nutritional intake. analyse role revolutions for respective are able identify statistical breaks population growth, consumption economic growth occurrence revolutions. compare trajectories European Non-European countries which marked revolutionary where case. Particular attention is paid phase have occurred, impact shock had further course growth. second analyzed mature industrial economies early 1970s, association first price shocks. practically all there triggered termination steep incline metabolic rates favour fairly stable per capita level materials consumption, while continued. investigate policy responses areas coping these "shocks" achieving reduction biophysical maintaining economy employment. employ number different methods analysis: long time series data explore at what sequence certain trends changed. On other hand, analysis literature qualitatively. Finally, synthesize can be learned such macro societal transitions: external shocks, structural change policies play? Which lessons learnt order better position manage ahead us?