Basin-wide Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Mekong Basin.

摘要: Water resources support more than 60 million people in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) and are important for food security—especially rice production—and economic security. This study aims to quantify water yield under near- long-term climate scenarios assess potential impacts on cultivation. The InVEST model (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs) forecasted yield, land evaluation was used delineate suitability classes. Pattern-downscaled data were specially generated LMB. Predicted annual yields 2030 2060, derived from a drier overall scenario combination with medium high greenhouse gas emissions, indicated reduction 9–24% baseline (average 1986–2005) runoff. In contrast, increased seasonality wetter rainfall runoff by 6–26%. Extreme drought decreased transplanted cultivation 3%, production would be reduced 4.2 4%, without irrigation projects, relative baseline. Greatest predicted Thailand, followed Lao PDR Cambodia, stable Vietnam. Rice LMB appears sufficient feed population 2030, while Cambodia not expected domestic consumption, largely due steep topography sandy soils as well drought. Four adaptation measures minimize (i.e., irrigation, changing planting calendar, new varieties, alternative crops) discussed.