Modeling Insurgent Dynamics Including Heterogeneity. A Statistical Physics Approach

摘要: Despite the myriad complexities inherent in human conflict, a common pattern has been identified across wide range of modern insurgencies and terrorist campaigns involving severity individual events—namely an approximate power-law x −α with exponent α≈2.5. We recently proposed simple toy model to explain this finding, built around reported loose transient nature operational cells insurgents or terrorists. Although it reproduces 2.5 power-law, assumes every actor is identical. Here we generalize incorporate heterogeneity while retaining model’s analytic solvability. In case kinship team rules guiding cell dynamics, find that result persists—however interesting new phase transition emerges whereby distribution undergoes which individuals become isolated hence all have spontaneously disintegrated. Apart from extending our understanding empirical for terrorism, work illustrates how other statistical physics models grouping might usefully be generalized order explore effect diverse social, cultural behavioral traits.