Projected climate change impacts on forest land cover and land use over the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA

摘要: Upland forests in the Pacific Northwest currently provide a host of ecosystem services. However, regional climate is expected to warm significantly over course 21st century and this factor must be accounted for planning efforts maintain those Here we couple dynamic global vegetation model (MC2) with landscape simulation (Envision) evaluate potential impacts change on cover disturbance regime Willamette River Basin, Oregon. Three CMIP5 scenarios, downscaled 4 km spatial resolution, were employed. In our simulations, dominant type remained forest throughout basin, but transitioned from primarily evergreen needleleaf mixture broadleaf growth forms adapted warmer climate. By 2100, there was difference (i.e., climate/vegetation disequilibrium) between actual 20–50 % forested area. moderate high average area burned per year increased three nine fold present day. Forest harvest private land projected affected late because fire altering availability rotation-age stands. A generally more disturbed open expected, which may alter hydrologic cycle.