Extension of the Climate Prediction Center Long-Lead Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks to General Weather Statistics

摘要: Abstract The long-lead monthly and seasonal forecasts issued by the Climate Prediction Center literally pertain only to average temperature total precipitation outcomes, but implicitly contain information regarding other quantities that are correlated with these two variables. This paper presents a method for estimating conditional probability distribution any such quantity is computable statistic of available daily climatological data, through weighted bootstrap resampling on particular joint (temperature precipitation) forecast probabilities. Examples illustrating implementation results provided.