US agricultural exports and labor market adjustments

摘要: This study empirically investigates the impact of US agricultural exports on farm and nonfarm employment tests how individuals adjust to export shocks. Based data from 1991 2017 a Bartik‐style instrument that exploits cross‐regional variation in exposure stemming initial differences specialization temporal predicted exogenous tariff reductions, we find 1% increase increases by 0.302% has no statistically significant employment. The individual‐level analysis shows that, response positive demand shocks, natives with college degree are more likely become self‐employed start activities while non‐natives without hired farmworkers. A back‐of‐the‐envelope calculation based estimates trade elasticities balance, job gains due slightly larger than loss imports, resulting net gain around 0.24 million jobs over 1991–2017.