Predicting the fate of French bird communities under agriculture and climate change scenarios

摘要: a b s t r c The use of forward scenarios to forecast the environmental implications potential changes in climate and land is useful tool for policy development. In this paper, we projected responses bird communities both agricultural changes. We created four (current trends, biofuel development, livestock extensification extensification), each developed at national or regional level policy-making. further considered three climatic (A1B, A2 B1) from among IPCC 4th Assessment Report scenarios. assessed based on predicted suitability using various indicators, including European Farmland Bird Indicator (FBI) Community Specialisation Index (CSI). found that trends different indicators differed greatly other depending policy-making scale. Our results suggest public policies promote extensive practices are more appropriate improving fate landscapes, especially with regionalisation policy. These provide readily accessible visualisation impacts change farmland communities.