Optimal Multi-model Ensemble Method in Seasonal Climate Prediction

摘要: Given a large number of dynamical model predictions, this study endeavors to improve seasonal climate prediction through optimizing multi-model ensemble (MME) method. We have developed new MME method and evaluated it using 15 models’ retrospective forecasts for the period 1981-2001 in comparison with other methods. The strengths lie statistical error correction procedure predictions individual discreet selection reliable predictors among all possible candidates. conspicuous improvement is achieved against methods over regions which average skill very poor, such as land area extratropical oceans. It demonstrated that allows present get more effective being used increases.