A theoretical evaluation and empirical investigation into explanations for the escalation of commitment phenomenon in the particular organisational contexts of Expo 86 and Expo 88

摘要: Escalation of commitment to failing investments is considered be representative biased forms decision-making which may result in unproductive consequences. Decision makers adopt investment courses action initial conditions uncertainty, subsequently appear lead failure. When confronted with the prospect their decisions producing losses, they commit decision errors thus escalating original action. Several theories rational and irrational antecedents have been developed literature explain escalation phenomenon. Fundamental theoretical differences are associated origin concept. was conceived theory context problem resource allocation under uncertainty conditions. This thesis describes order identify characteristics. Explanations these characteristics reveal several problems: there no rules available handle uncertainty; consistently violate requirements for rationality economic making; individual utility maximization divorced from business objective profit maximisation also involves taking increased risks when an expectation that losses will recovered; criteria methods evaluation computationally analytically difficult apply; whether a error has made indeterminate some projects whose success or failure cannot determined until after project completion. These problems conclusion determination depend on valuation methodology selected. In this respect it argued undertaken public organisations should evaluated using methodologies measure social benefits costs because calculations private rates return provide misleading assessments. Research phenomenon dominated by psychological perspective, obtains its findings extensive investigation individuals controlled experimental laboratory conditions. The research identified personal pre-dispositional, situational influences, contribute de-escalation commitment. major focus resulted two explanations derive descriptive cognitive motivational concerned expectancy, encourage making dissonance, turn produce self justification based decisions. An alternative favours theory. Research, critical derived normative expected utility, encourages self-interested behaviour. This explaining organisations. This necessarily adopting interdisciplinary perspective. examines world expositions, Expo 86 88. World expositions unusual government events principal purpose celebrate human achievements. held Vancouver’s centenary. 88 Australia’s bicentennial. They were not designed potential profitability. To justify expenditures involved other objectives attached celebratory purpose. usually urban renewal development. unorthodox projects. involve long times capital expenditure followed short operating periods six months less, time most improvements either disposed demolished. Expo incurred significant financial prototype. It became case study used develop generalized model escalation. specifies how initially formulated replaced progressively self-justification, escalate reinforced structural influences. extension experiments. The identifies plausible emotional commitment, influences conform group norms, possibilities deviating principles presence uncertainly agency pursuing own interests contrary organisation. Expo directly linked objectives. planning studies concluded event successfully achieved development cost benefit analysis as criterion evaluation. rationally executed. As examination, explores having multiple objectives, looks at can accommodated questions accounting negative determinant qualified prototypical example organisations. The concerns. A longitudinal dimension adopted study. enabled origins explored, various criteria. failed all but one employed. produced impacts excess costs. Expo influential who promoted initiative exposition basis staging would publicly personally beneficial. than included tourism promoters believed justified event. influenced profitability considerations information had provided during phase, indicated losses. Because pronouncements politically necessary include objective. Various costly deceptive measures generate impression At same successfully, terms profitability, attendance figures. As analyses, modified incorporating motives into structure. driven over life relationships pursuit development, celebration political recognition. The concludes discussion contributions limitations research. modifications reflect importance process, generalisation causes contingent circumstances impact methodological limitation relates selection engaged inappropriate representatives examine