A SURVEY OF TECHNIQUES OF CAR OWNERSHIP FORECASTING

摘要: This paper deals with techniques for deriving car ownership forecasts. The first of these methods discussed are those based on extrapolation procedures which incorporate logistic curves. prediction saturation levels by this approach is shown to be very difficult. Econometric modelling then explored. use utility theory show why people should wish own a car, not suitable estimation. Better results obtained multiple regression models using linear, log linear or logit formulations. Some from category analysis also discussed, as the influence car-ownership equations income variations, spatial variables (such density etc), and taste factors. /TRRL/