The Law of Accelerating Returns

摘要: An analysis of the history technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years progress in 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth rate growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence surpass human intelligence, leading Singularity so rapid profound represents rupture fabric history. implications include merger biological nonbiological immortal software-based humans, ultra-high levels expand outward universe at light.