Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality

摘要: [1] This study examines the effects of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, and resulting feedback to natural air quality. Speciated sector- region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed produce gas particle inventories that followed Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B B1 trajectories. Current climate model simulations run, in which changes affected fed back from lightning (NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, H2O2, HO2, CO), soils (dust, bacteria, NO, H2, CH4, H2S, DMS, OCS, CS2), ocean (bacteria, sea spray, CH4), vegetation (pollen, spores, isoprene, monoterpenes, methanol, other VOCs), photosynthesis/respiration. New methods derived calculate flash rates as a function size-resolved collisions physical principles pollen, spore, bacteria emissions. Although scenario was “cleaner” than scenario, global warming increased more because much masked by additional reflective aerosol particles. Thus neither is entirely beneficial health perspective, best control measure reduce gases warming/cooling particles together. Lightning declined ∼3% ∼12% number ice crystals, thus charge-separating bounceoffs, decreased. Net primary production ∼2% both scenarios. Emissions isoprene monoterpenes ∼1% 4–5% scenario. Near-surface ozone ∼14% ∼4% reducing ambient latter case. Gases scenarios due higher temperatures. PM2.5 mass decreased The 1.4% optical depths (AODs) wind speeds spray emissions; ∼5% lower AODs had opposite effect.