作者: Oscar Sotolongo-Costa , José Weberszpil , Oscar Sotolongo-Grau
DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.03.20120576
关键词:
摘要: Abstract An analogy relaxation model, able to describe the dynamics of Covid-19 pandemics, in terms daily presented new cases, is obtained. The main objective here prediction pandemic dynamics, as forecast herd immunity time, and provide quantitative criteria for some predictions. We propose an based on concept fractal derivative justify appearance time. A Burr XII-shaped solution a fractal-like equation was data fitting shows that obtained function useful behavior studied countries. temporal evolution contagion over different countries worldwide are discussed. also show deformed model leads same analytical results. PACS numbers 05.90.+m - Other topics statistical physics, thermodynamics, nonlinear dynamical systems, 11.10.Lm Nonlinear or nonlocal theories models, 02.90.+p mathematical methods physics.