Distribution shifts of freshwater fish under a variable climate: comparing climatic, bioclimatic and biotic velocities

摘要: Aim We aimed to quantify how stream fish species have responded short-term variability in climate across eight consecutive periods over the last 20 years by comparing biotic (velocities of observed range shifts) expected bioclimatic climate-induced shift suitable habitat species) velocities, a measure combining species-specific exposure and sensitivity climate. Location French streams. Methods Occupancy models were developed model distribution 14 time between 1992 2011 project changes area time. Based on projected suitability, we first estimated velocities for each transition periods. We then applied same approach estimate velocities. Finally, shifts compared those basis reach hydrographic network consistency distributional responses – potential lags transitions quantified. Results We found that overall consistent with expectations, matching both direction magnitude Nonetheless, also show consistently lagged behind (mean = 4.64 m.year−1). Lags gain more pronounced than loss revealed differential vulnerability local populations within distributions. Main conclusions These findings demonstrate integrating sensitivities into measures climatic (namely velocities) provide improved expectations shifts. They suggest may display low ability persist under short unfavourable limited capacity disperse upstream towards newly habitats.