Objective Prediction of Severe Thunderstorm Environments: Preliminary Results Linking a Decision Tree with an Operational Regional NWP Model

摘要: The output from the Australian operational regional numerical weather prediction model has been used to provide input thermodynamic and kinematic fields a decision tree designed diagnose likelihood of thunderstorms whether thunderstorm environment is conducive development severe, supercell, or tornadic supercell thunderstorms. On targeted cases observed severe described in this paper system successfully diagnoses appears discriminate between nontornadic cases. It shown that Colquhoun considerable potential, when coupled with NWP model, forecast guidance areas thunderstorms, these storms are likely be associated flash floods, downbursts, strong winds, etc. results case studies show very good degree correspondence location type observed, if were replicated practice, would great benefit teams. 33-day trial indicate did not occur due excessive overprediction, relatively low number false alarms high hits based on admittedly fairly loose subjective criterion for hit. These may useful alerting form basis definition watch practice Australia.