Rainfall-runoff modeling of recent hydroclimatic change in-a subtropical lake catchment: Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina

作者: Magali Troin , Christine Vallet-Coulomb , Eduardo Piovano , Florence Sylvestre

DOI: 10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2012.10.010

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摘要: Summary The 1970s abrupt lake level rise of Laguna Mar Chiquita in central Argentina was shown to be driven by an increase the Rio Sali-Dulce discharge outflowing from northern part catchment. This regional hydrological change consistent with 20th century hydroclimatic trends observed southeastern South America. However, little is known about impacts climate or land cover changes on this causing sharp rise. To address question, present study aims provide integrated basin-lake model. We used physically-based SWAT model order simulate streamflow Basin. ability non-stationary conditions evaluated a cross-calibration exercise. Based daily meteorological data over 1973–2004, two successive 9-year periods referred as wet (P1976–1985 = 1205 mm/yr) and dry (P1986–1995 = 796 mm/yr) were selected. calibration yielded similar Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) at monthly time scale for both (NSEwet = 0.86; NSEdry = 0.90) supporting model’s adapt its structure changing climatic situations. simulation extended scarce 1931–1972 values acceptable (NSE = 0.71). When precipitation increased until it reach ( Δ P / ¯ = 22 % ), resulting found closely match Q 45 ). Sensitivity analyses revealed that had minor impact Integrating simulations within 1973–2004 provided variations those obtained using values. Over longer period, going back 1931, main features levels still adequately reproduced, which suggests promising approach simulating long-term fluctuations response climate.

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