摘要: Violent tornadoes are rare in Europe but they can have devastating effects. Damage associated with individual reach several billion euros and caused hundreds of fatalities. The tornado risk varies considerably over Europe, so far only a few national maps one Europe-wide map exist. We show different ways to create quantitative occurrence rates as follows: Kernel smoothing observations, climatologies convective parameters from reanalysis, output logistic regression model link observed tornadoes, orography-dependent finally the population-bias corrected Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Severe Convective Storm Model. discuss advantages disadvantages each approach compare results. While created methods lot qualitative similarities, we advocate combine achieve most reliable climatology.
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