Tornado loss model of Oklahoma and Kansas, United States, based on the historical tornado data and Monte Carlo simulation

摘要: Abstract This paper introduces a new tornado loss assessment model for one-family and two-family wood frame residential buildings in the states of Kansas (KS) Oklahoma (OK), United States. The belongs to group Monte Carlo simulations consists five main modules: (1) climatology; (2) intensity track geometry; (3) exposure map; (4) fragility vulnerability functions; (5) financial module that is used calculate resulting damages. In addition, two analytical formulations radial distribution tangential velocity vortex were implemented module—Rankine Vortex (RV) Modified Rankine (MRV) models. Using MRV model, mean aggregated annual expected losses return period 1000 years are US$ 392,080,526.8 641,281,336.0 KS OK, respectively. Although house prices higher than occurrence tornadoes OK combined with larger population (i.e., density houses) result increased OK. derived using from RV due underestimating velocity. Furthermore, predicted by current formulation less estimated previous version (Romanic et al., 2016). also tested case single positioned over suburban area City,