A statistical volcanic forcing scenario generator for climate simulations

摘要: [1] The climate system is continuously affected by forcings that add to its inherent variability. Recently, the dominant influence shifted from mostly natural factors rapidly increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing. Climate change simulations for 21st 22nd centuries then employ possible story lines of human socio-economic development with associated radiative forcing exclusively explore potential on climate. None scenarios, however, include dominated variations prior large emissions. This leads a discontinuity at transition between historical future projection period. Similarly, studies transient before last 1–2 millennia generally use only well-known, slowly varying such as orbital or derived ice cores. While past solar irradiance can be reasonably estimated cosmogenic isotope data, no well-dated, high-resolution information exists about A.D. 500 would allow an implementation explosive volcanism. Here, we present statistical approach generate statistically (and geophysically) realistic scenarios volcanic are based properties longest available series The resulting do not carry direct temporally predictive hindcast capabilities, but they appropriate evaluation uncertainty various timescales. These applied ensure seamless integration important factor periods where available.