Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa

摘要: The availability of seasonal weather forecast information in Africa has potential to provide advanced early warning rainfall variability, informing preparedness actions minimise adverse impacts. Obtaining accurate for the spatial scales at which decisions are made is vital. Here we examine impact on utility forecasts Africa. Using observations alongside from European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), combine measures local representativity and skill assess optimal anticipating conditions. results reveal regions where aggregation gridded data improves quality provided scale, have useful without aggregation. More generally this study presents a novel approach evaluating applicable both globally all timescales