Probabilistic analysis of CO2 storage mechanisms in a CO2-EOR field using polynomial chaos expansion

摘要: Abstract Oil fields are already used for storing carbon via CO2-enhanced-oil-recovery (CO2-EOR). Such storage is an outcome of CO2-EOR, albeit not necessarily by design. A next step would be intentional post-EOR CO2 injection. Trapping mechanisms in such operations include the same as including and especially hydrostratigraphic trapping oil/aqueous dissolution. Forecasting nature ultimate distribution a reservoir hindered uncertainty properties. The purpose this study to develop apply reduced order models (ROMs) integrated with Monte Carlo simulations quantify oil solubility (oil phase), aqueous (aqueous hydrodynamic (CO2 supercritical phase). case site analysis SACROC unit western Texas. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) technique was ROMs. sources considered porosity permeability. Model results interest dissolved mass phase, saturation rock formation. Reduced developed all cells five selected layers model, which adjacent injection wells, at three specific time points interest, end simulated CO2-EOR period, continuous post-injection monitoring period. Results regression fit validation yield high R2 values low NRMSE values, indicating that ROMs derived from PCE capable meaningful predictions (compared conventional models) effectively represent relationships between model parameters (inputs) (outputs) interest. 1000 indicate dominantly upward transport during injection, driven buoyancy, downward after stops, caused increases both brine density. At 100-year simulation study, forecast store 54% 61% total trapped entire domain 21% 24% 11% 15% phase. These forecasted 89% 98% field simulation.