ESTIMATING OCCURRENCE, PREVALENCE, AND DETECTION OF AMPHIBIAN PATHOGENS: INSIGHTS FROM OCCUPANCY MODELS.

摘要: Understanding the distribution of pathogens across landscapes and their prevalence within host populations is a common aim wildlife managers. Despite need for unbiased estimates pathogen occurrence planning effective management interventions, many researchers fail to account imperfect detection. Instead raw data are often reported, which may lead ineffective, or even detrimental, actions. We illustrate utility occupancy models generating disease parameters by 1) providing written tutorial describing how fit these in Program PRESENCE 2) presenting case study with ranavirus. analyzed ranavirus detection from refuge (Maryland, US) using modeling, yields prevalence. found was underestimated up 30% if ignored. The estimate larval wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus; 0.73) higher than spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum; 0.56) populations. In addition, odds detecting tail samples were 6.7 times liver samples. Therefore, presented nonlethal sampling method that be able detect early (nonsystemic) infections.