The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model

摘要: Background: The impact of screening mammography on breast cancer incidence is difficult to disentangle from cohort- and age-related effects incidence. Methods: We developed an age-period-cohort model ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) invasive U.S. females using registry data. Five functions were included the estimate stage-specific for age, premenopausal birth cohorts, postmenopausal period (for all years diagnosis), a effect limited women aged ≥40 after 1982. Incidence with without was calculated. Results: More recent cohorts have elevated underlying risk compared earlier both pre- women. Comparing models showed that overall would been 23.1% lower absence 2010 (95% CI 18.8, 27.4), including 14.7% (9.5, 19.3) 54.5% (47.4, 59.6) DCIS. distant-staged 29.0% (13.1, 48.1) greater screening. Conclusions: Mammography contributes markedly rates DCIS early stage cancers, but also substantial reductions metastatic cancer. Impact: important tool reducing burden cancer, future work needed identify factors accounting increasing distinguish between indolent potentially lethal cancers are detected via mammography.