Limits of predictability

摘要: 1. Introduction.- References.- 2. Forecasting Weather and Climate.- 2.1 2.2 Dynamical Systems Their Properties.- 2.3 Predictability.- 2.4 Elements of Stationary Random Process Prediction Theory.- 2.5 Predictability Climatic Processes.- 2.6 Ways to Improve Statistical Forecasting.- 2.7 Utilization Results.- 2.8 Conclusion.- 3. How an Active Autowave Medium Can Be Used Predict the Future.- 3.1 Prediction.- 3.2 Media.- 3.3 Propagation in Energy-Restoring 3.4 Dynamics Interaction.- 3.5 The External Model Its Fourier Image.- 3.6 Non-isochronism Cyclic 3.7 Harmonious Modulation Harmonics.- 3.8 Image Cleared by Medium.- 4. Synergetics, Deterministic Chaos.- 4.1 4.2 Nonlinearity Open Behavior.- 4.3 Synergetics Order Parameters.- 4.4 Strangeness Strange Attractors.- 4.5 Chaos Reality.- 4.6 Chaos. Gates Fairyland.- 5. Information-Theoretic Approach Assessing Reliability Forecasts.- 5.1 5.2 as Subject Matter Information 5.3 An Example.- 5.4 Optimization Methods.- 5.5 Properties Shared 5.6 Connection Between Discounting Non-stationarity.- 5.7 6. Time Series.- 6.1 Problem.- 6.2 Genesis Phenomena.- 6.3 Series Based on 6.4 Point 6.5 Nature Errors Hindering 6.6 Strong Earthquakes.- 7. Fundamental Practical Limits 7.1 7.2 Real, Observed, 7.3 Degree Predictability. Horizon.- 7.4 Searching for Models.- 7.5 7.6 Analogs Social Economic 7.7 8. Future is Foreseeable but not Predictable: 'Oedipus Effect' 8.1 Historical Background.- 8.2 8.3 Problem Foresight Globalistics.- 8.4 Foreseeing Predicting Development Former Soviet Society.- Appendix A: Looking Back August 1991 Coup.- B: Ahead.- 9. Self-Organization American Society Presidential Senatorial Elections.- 9.1 9.2 Election: Formal Analysis.- 9.3 Midterm Elections: 9.4 Discussion.- 10. Problems Ethnogenic Studies.- References.