Chapter 11 – Satellite-Based Irradiance and Power Forecasting for the German Energy Market
作者： Jan Kühnert , Elke Lorenz , Detlev Heinemann
DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-397177-7.00011-5
关键词:
摘要: Irradiance forecasts are fundamental to the prediction of power production from photovoltaic (PV) plants. Prediction is necessary perform effective balancing electricity demand and variable weather-dependent supply. Images Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites provide valuable information for forecasting clouds solar irradiance several hours ahead using cloud-motion vectors (CMV). In this chapter we present our approach deriving MSG images predicting cloud situation by applying CMV. An evaluation forecast single sites regional averages on basis a 1 y dataset presented. The CMV shows superior performance in comparison other methods such as numerical weather (NWP) up 5 h ahead. Additionally, an introduction PV-power-prediction techniques
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