Chapter 11 Scientific and Social Uncertainties in Climate Change: The Hindu Kush-Himalaya in Regional Perspective

摘要: Hydrological and climatological modeling is increasingly being used with the intent of supporting community-based climate change adaptation (CCA) disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives in Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH), as well filling critical data gaps a region that contributes significantly to water resources ecosystem diversity Asia. As case studies presented previous chapters illustrate, utility informing CCA DRR depends on number criteria, including:•appropriate model selection;•ability interpret models local contexts; and•community engagement incorporates addresses underlying vulnerabilities within community. There are significant challenges meeting all three these criteria. However, when criteria met, we find:•There clear role for support CCA. The changing now will continue do so several centuries, even if carbon emissions were stabilize tomorrow. Models, other scenario development tools, provide our best insight into what future might be resulting impacts dynamic social, environmental, political, economic systems.•There felt mostly at levels, necessitating community responses. At same time, most HKH communities countries engaged have pressing, immediate livelihood needs. Making current incorporate considerations way ensure choices made today can set us paths increasing resilience, rather than almost inevitable disaster, future.•To achieve both requires thoughtful patient application modeling, tailored needs, conditions, politics, around stages generating, interpreting, applying results. This rare combination technical skill, cultural sensitivity, political awareness, above all, time continually engage build relationships order foster resilient change.