Estimation of Errors in Seasonal Cycles

摘要: Abstract A formula is first given for the error in a 2-harmonic seasonal curve of best fit through set N oceanographic data points, assuming departures from true mean are independent random numbers. Departures actual measurements cycle fact correlated with one another, owing to long-period nonseasonal variability: hence estimate will generally be too small. If can split into two sets that statistically independent, method estimating (in an averaged sense) factor by which should multiplied, account effect correlations on estimate. Results four ways splitting steric height off Western Australia suggest results reasonably splitting.