Capture-recapture to estimate the size of the population with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.

摘要: Estimating and monitoring the total number of people infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is a critical public health objective. No single epidemiologic methodology yields completely reliable estimates. We used techniques originally designed to estimate size wildlife populations complement estimates population HIV-1 infection in Lazio, Italy, during 1990 obtained from surveillance, surveys, dynamic mathematical models. reports four large testing sites generate incomplete, partially overlapping lists HIV-positive subjects. Log-linear models yielded estimated prevalences 5.65 per 1,000 among males (95% confidence interval = 4.52-6.78) 1.84 1.34-2.33) females age 15-64 years. This method provides simple inexpensive means obtaining accurate HIV seropositives. It could be applied easily all situations which data multiple sources are available.