Forecasting volcanic ash deposition using HYSPLIT

摘要: A major source of error in forecasting where airborne volcanic ash will travel and land is the wind pattern above around volcano. GNS Science, conjunction with MetService, seeking to move its routine forecasts from using ASHFALL program, which cannot allow for horizontal variations pattern, HYSPLIT, uses a full 4-D atmospheric model. This has required some extensions standard version HYSPLIT both get appropriate terms handle fall velocities particles larger than 100 microns. Application modified Te Maari eruption 6 August 2012 Tongariro volcano gives results similar observed distribution. However, it was also apparent that high precision these could be misleading actual situations, there needs ways likely errors model winds can incorporated into models, show all areas significant likelihood deposited each particular