More on the cohort-component model of population projection in the context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie matrix representation and new estimates.

摘要: This article presents an extension of the cohort-component model population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline (2003) that is capable modeling a affected HIV. proposes maximum likelihood approach to estimate age profile HIV incidence produced epidemics in East Africa during 1990s. We extend this work developing Leslie matrix representation CCMPP, which greatly facilitates implementation for parameter estimation and projection. The also contains information about stable tendencies corresponding population, such as distribution time stability. Another contribution we update sources data used parameters, use these modified version CCMPP includes (estimated) parameters governing survival experience infected population. A further application small with high prevalence rural South presented additional demonstration. lays foundation development more robust flexible Bayesian methods will enhance utility similar models.