Computer-assisted expert interrogation: A report on current methods development☆

摘要: Abstract This paper describes a major program currently under way at the Institute for Future to develop and test system on-line interaction among experts via network of computer terminals. The authors review Institute's existing methods eliciting processing expert judgments, then discuss operational procedures by which these have conventionally been implemented. In light shortcomings procedures, argue an urgent need group modeling capabilities as next leap forward in judgmental-research methodology. A description is given recently completed prototype interrogation system, whereby remotely situated respondents can participate inquiries ARPA computer-communication University Southern California's PDP-10 computer. Problems encountered thus far are discussed, future plans refinement extension. concludes with some brief philosophical observations on state our art, acknowledging that much work remains be done still-primitive tools decision-making.