Evaluating the potential of the SORTIE forest succession model for spatio-temporal analysis of small-scale disturbances

摘要: Abstract Ecologists and forest managers both recognize the importance of detailed spatio-temporal knowledge on local small-scale disturbances (SSD) dynamics impacts. However, a large proportion about SSD is based temporally short data sets, non-spatial analysis. SORTIE, stochastic mechanistic spatially explicit individual-based succession model, particularly well suited for simulating overcoming traditional field studies limitations. Our main goal to investigate potential SORTIE analysis SSD. More specifically, we intend evaluate model sensitivity initial conditions, assess impact introduced minor species densities. We hypothesize that will generate realistic within range tested scenarios. performed simulations over period 1000 years using two different spatial configurations (Random Aggregated) fifteen replicates. For each replicate extracted, at time step 5 years, structure with use Ripley's K statistic. The resulting series periods trends were compared between condition scenarios by performing phase coherence regression In another set simulations, sizes (500, 800 1100 m 2 ) distinct steps (400 600 years). Species density analyzed again in terms periodicity trend. Results indicate conditions limited first 300 very similar after period. Also, statistical tests revealed densities are not sensitive single SSD, all moments disturbance. These conclusions suggest can be valuable complementary tool studies.