Simplified methods for real-time prediction of storm surge uncertainty: The city of Venice case study

摘要: Abstract Providing reliable and accurate storm surge forecasts is important for a wide range of problems related to coastal environments. In order adequately support decision-making processes, it also become increasingly be able estimate the uncertainty associated with forecast. The procedure commonly adopted do this uses results hydrodynamic model forced by set different meteorological forecasts; however, approach requires considerable, if not prohibitive, computational cost real-time application. present paper we two simplified methods estimating affecting prediction moderate effort. first use computationally fast, statistical tidal instead numerical uncertainty. second based on observation that in sea level forecast mainly stems from fields; has led idea via linear combination suitable variances, directly extracted fields. proposed were applied Venice Lagoon. clearly show estimated through variances nicely matches one obtained using deterministic overcomes some intrinsic limitations model.