MODELING THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF THE OCCURRENCES OF FUTURE LANDSLIDES IN A STUDY AREA CHARACTERIZED BY SPATIAL DATA

摘要: The most crucial but difficult task in the analysis of risk due to landslide hazard is estimation conditional probability occurrence future landslides a study area within specific time period given presence spatial and geomorphologic features. This contribution explores modeling procedure for estimating that probability. proposed consists two steps. first step divide into number “prediction” classes according level likely landslides. “Favourability Functions” based on geomorphological data were used sub-division. dependent quantity quality input data. Each class represents with respect We term it “hazard-mapping step”. For this step, several quantitative models have been developed strategy reconstruct typical settings which are occur. second empirically estimate each prediction crossvalidation techniques. termed “probability step” basic cross-validation construct using occurrences from time-period then compare distribution later period. statistics obtained comparison provides measure illustrate case study, La Baie, Quebec Canada.