Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

摘要: Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles adults in autumn failed account for increased vulnerability juvenile ducks hunting and uncertainty estimated age ratio. Neglecting will positively bias mean productivity estimate, neglecting estimation year-to-year variance because raw ratios are product sampling variation, year-specific vulnerability, success. Therefore, we effects cumulative winter California Central Valley Mississippi Alluvial on pintail (Anas acuta) mallard platyrhnchos) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods correct estimates observation error covariates. We applied model a hunter-collected parts survey implemented United States Fish Wildlife Service band recoveries reported Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory data from 1961 2013. compared our results previous that used simple linear regression uncorrected smaller subset years (1961–1985). Like analyses, found large consistent population size wetland conditions prairie Canada productivity, latitude observed breeding productivity. Unlike report amount wintering-ground with considerable sign main effect, although posterior medians were past studies. more an interaction effect between precipitation, suggesting has larger high size, especially pintail. When derive sustainable harvest projection (i.e., yield curve), there was or decreased potential size. These suggest mechanism cross-seasonal habitat reproduction occurs through reduction strength density dependence above-average precipitation. additional investigation underlying mechanisms managers decision-makers consider level these when attempting integrate management decisions. Collection annual status rigorous framework would likely be most direct way improve understanding inform management. © 2016 The Society.