Predicting Wolbachia invasion dynamics in Aedes aegypti populations using models of density-dependent demographic traits

摘要: Arbovirus transmission by the mosquito Aedes aegypti can be reduced introduction and establishment of endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia in wild populations vector. spreads increasing fitness its hosts relative to uninfected mosquitoes. However, is also strongly affected population size through density-dependent competition for limited food resources. We do not understand how this natural variation affects symbiont spread, which limits our ability design successful control strategies. develop a mathematical model predict A. aegypti–Wolbachia dynamics that incorporates larval important components infected Our explains detailed features mosquito–Wolbachia observed two independent experimental populations, allowing combined effects on multiple characterized. apply investigate field release dynamics, show invasion outcomes depend severity at site. Specifically, ratio released mosquitoes required attain target infection frequency (at end program) vary nearly an order magnitude. The time taken become established following releases differ over 2 years. These insectary-reared Models incorporating demographic host explain populations. models strong density-dependence assist effective use arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya zika.