Challenges Ahead for Nuclear Facility Site-Specific Seismic Hazard Assessment in France: The Alternative Energies and the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) Vision

摘要: Seismic analysis in the context of nuclear safety France is currently guided by a pure deterministic approach based on Basic Safety Rule (Regle Fondamentale de Surete) RFS 2001-01 for seismic hazard assessment, and ASN/2/01 Guide that provides design rules civil engineering structures. After 2011 Tohohu earthquake, operators worldwide were asked to estimate ability their facilities sustain extreme loads. The French licensees then defined ‘hard core levels’, which are higher than those considered or re-assessment facility. These initially established basis, they have been finally justified through state-of-the-art probabilistic assessments. appreciation propagation uncertainties when assessing changed considerably over past 15 years. This evolution provided motivation present article, objectives threefold: (1) provide description current practices assess terms safety; (2) discuss highlight sources treatment; (3) use specific case study illustrate how extended source modeling can help constrain key assumptions parameters impact upon assessment. article discusses particular characterization, strong ground motion prediction, maximal magnitude constraints, according practice Atomic Energy Commission. Due increases databases number quality records metadata uncertainty several recently published empirical prediction models eligible assessment France. We show epistemic aleatory feasible approach, as way. Assessment framework should consider these recent advances. In this sense, opening discussions with all stakeholders update reference documents (i.e., 2001-01; Guide) appears appropriate short term.