Relationships between fault geometry, slip rate variability and earthquake recurrence in extensional settings

摘要: Field observations and modelling indicate that elastic interaction between active faults can lead to variations in earthquake recurrence intervals measured on timescales of 102–104 yr. Fault geometry strongly influences the nature adjacent structures as it controls spatial redistribution stress when rupture occurs. In this paper, we use a previously published numerical model for spontaneously growing investigate relationships fault geometry, slip rate statistics recurrence. These develop become systematic long-term consequence individual events even though short activity appears be stochastic. We characterize behaviour using coefficient variation (CV) introduce new measure, slip-rate variability (SRV) takes into account size time ordering events. CV generally increases strain is partitioned more than one but relationship (SRmean) poorly defined. contrast, SRV systematically where faulting distributed SRmean lower. To first order, inversely proportional SRmean. also extract compare these probability density functions used forecasting. The histograms vary function are best characterized by Weibull distribution with fitting parameters from site along array. explain phenomena terms time-varying, geometrical control loading arising history interactions our results data normal New Zealand Italian Apennines. Our suggest palaeoseismic should collected analysed structural mind information SRV, integrated catalogues evaluating seismic hazard.